Date and Time: Thursday, March 5th, 3:00-4:15 PM
Please join us for the next Triangle Resources and Environmental Economics (TREE) Seminar. The TREE Seminar Series, an ongoing forum co-sponsored by RTI International, Duke University, and the Center for Environmental and Resource Economic Policy (CEnREP), brings researchers from around the country to the Triangle to discuss a variety of economic and policy-based solutions to many of today’s most pressing environmental challenges. All students, faculty, and staff are welcome to attend. This week features the following presentation:
Dr. Ariel Ortiz Bobea, Assistant Professor of Applied Economics and Policy, Cornell University
“The Recent Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Global Agricultural Production”
Abstract: Human activity is the primary contributor to climate change since the mid 20th century. A growing body of research seeks to better understand the future economic impacts of a changing climate. However, less is known about its recent and ongoing impacts even for climate-sensitive activities like agriculture. Despite substantial productivity growth, the agricultural sector remains sensitive to weather fluctuations. But it remains unclear to what extent our changing climate has already affected global agricultural production. Here we combine an econometric analysis with the latest counterfactual climate experiments to show that anthropogenic climate change has reduced growth in global agricultural productivity by about 12 percent since the 1960s. This slowdown is equivalent to a loss of 7 years of productivity growth over the past 60 years. The effects appear considerably more detrimental in warmer regions but remain beneficial for a minority of colder northern nations. Importantly, we find that global agriculture is growing increasingly vulnerable to ongoing climatic change, consistent with observed trends in United States agriculture. Our analysis encompasses the entire global agricultural sector and is consistent with previous evidence on major crop yields. The study highlights that anthropogenic climate change represents an ongoing headwind for global agriculture.
The TREE Seminar Series is presented by RTI International, Duke University, and the Center for Environmental and Resource Economic Policy (CEnREP).